EUROPE IN THE WORLD WITHOUT WEST – WIEW FROM YEAR 2030

Abstract

A scenario of the possible European and global development between
2010 and 2030, based on several key trends: the impact of the global economic
and financial crisis on the status of the West in global governance, the rising
importance of the new, non-western actors of global politics, the weakening of the
security alliance between Europe and the US caused by disagreements over the
solution of several regional security crises and over cost sharing within NATO. In
consequence, NATO transforms itself into a new organization (Trans-Atlantic
Security Council). Simultaneously with the intra-NATO problems, crisis symptoms
appear in the functioning of the EU, developing into three crises: the crisis of the
eurozone, of democracy and of global governance. Thanks to its strong “soft
power” potential, however, the EU manages to overcome these crises and play an
important role in the new form of global governance, represented by the new
character of the UN as a federation of influential regional organizations.