THE CZECH REPUBLIC WITHOUT STRATEGIC INNOVATIVE AMBITIONS

Abstract

The scenario starts with the premise that the riskiest approach to
forecasting is the straightforward extrapolation of past trends. The example of
Czech history is telling: in the 20th century, the country saw ten major changes of
the social and political system, including a serious economic crisis with political
and social consequences and the breakup of the joint Czechoslovak state. Czechs
therefore tend to respond to world affairs with caution. Still, from the perspective
of 2030 it can already be said that despite the dynamics of our history and the
riskiness of extrapolation, the 2010s and 2020s have been only an extrapolation of
the previous development. In some periods, political power was being twisted to
serve lobbyist purposes; laws were passed “on demand”, e.g. with the aim to
obstruct activities strengthening democracy and standard political culture. This
was opposed by that part of the public which identified itself with democratic and
humanist ideals. Apart from the creeping resignation on ethical values, the
country’s development was retarded also by the lack of truly erudite politicians
and the inability of the changing administrations to master the principles of
strategic governance, i. e. governing and leading the country according to a longterm vision and strategic plans.